Tim Rodgers
Recent news​
Statistics and the Translation Problem
Managing in the 2000s, January 31, 2014
Folks who are trained in statistical analysis methods can become frustrated when working with untrained folks, and the feeling is often mutual. Business leaders are looking for clear guidance, and all the talk about probabilities, confidence intervals and "the results fail to reject the null hypothesis" doesn't sound very helpful. I believe that in most cases the problem isn't with the answer given by the statistical analysis, it's with the question.
This reminds me of the "word problem" problem that causes a lot of people to give up on math in school. They can solve x+2=3, but they can't figure out when train A will pass train B when their speeds and locations are given. it's actually a translation problem, an inability to express the proper mathematical representation of the question that's posed. If you can express the questions correctly the rules of algebra will get you the right answer, but it's hard to get there.
Patience and Process Improvement
Managing in the 2000s, January 28, 2014
It used to be easier when I was working in the factory. If we wanted to make a change to a production process we could usually determine fairly quickly whether the change led to a real improvement in performance. We had control over all the inputs and process variables. We were building over 2 million units a month, so the before-and-after samples could be large enough to perform a rigorous hypothesis test. The tough part was convincing people to wait patiently while the "after" sample was measured and analyzed.
Business process improvment is more challenging. It's harder to control the inputs and variables, or understand all the external infuences, which means it's harder to model the process and figure out how to improve it without breaking something else. It's harder to run experiements to test proposed improvements. The improvements usually require training and software changes that require some time to implement. It can take weeks, months, or even ...
Focus on Projects, Not Jobs
Managing in the 2000s, January 24, 2014
I've been doing a lot of professional networking these last few months, particularly since my most-recent transition from the corporate world. I've met a lot of new people, and re-connected with many former colleagues. Everyone wants to know how the job search is going, and what I'm looking for in my next job. The more I think about these questions, the more I wonder whether I'm really looking for a "job."
Yes, I do want to be compensated for my work, and I prefer having some degree of stability and continuity in my work life, but (like most folks, I suspect) I have associated those things with a full-time position that doesn't have a pre-determined end date. In other words, a job.